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Who would I put my money on to win the WSOP?

Anyone who has the following six qualities:

1.Aggression - I am a firm believer that aggressive poker is winning poker. The winner this year will have to be very adept at pushing the short stacks around. Making their way through a huge field will require even demand, an aggressive attitude and style of play. Guys like John Juanda, Gus Hansen, and Daniel Negreanu have what it takes.

2.Patience - the winning poker player will be a patient player, capable of sitting back when it is right to do so and just wait for the right time to attack the game. Great winning players realize that patience is the key to success, especially early on in the tournament. Players like Jen Harman, Phil Hellmuth, Dan Harrington, and Chris Ferguson have what it takes in this department.

3.Observation - the winning player will rely on their powers of observation to pick up a lot of chips. Many of the 5,000 players in the tournament will be internet qualifiers that should be chock full of tells. I like Howard Lederer's concentration and attention to detail at the table.

4.Stamina - with life and death decisions for nearly 10 hours a day over the course of 6 days, the winning player will have to have an enormous or large amount of stamina reserved within his body. The pressure will be intense, especially as the field narrows down. I expect an athletic type like Phil Ivey, Huck Seed, Ted Forrest, and Erick Lindgren to have an advantage here.

5.Experience - will a pro win the WSOP this year? I would say it is less than about 20 percent likely that a big name player will win the event. That being said, I have got to give the advantage to players with experience. Brunson, Cloutier, Tomko, and Greenstein all seem to have that experience needed to win the event.

6.Luck - yes, without a question, the player fortunate enough to win this year will have been very lucky. I estimate that the winner will have been all-in at least seven times with cards to come and a chance of being eliminated. Even at 80 percent to win with one card to come (a set against a flush draw or straight draw) the chances of surviving all seven all-in bets is 21 percent. In reality, it will not be possible to win the tournament without being all-in with the worst hand, and the winner will probably need to get seriously lucky more than once.

WSOP is the most important tournament in the world of poker. The winner will be a World Champion and a spokesman for the game for many years to come.


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